Schedule Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) adjusts raw fantasy points allowed for each individual team's strength of schedule.
Watch as 4for4 expert TJ Hernandez teaches you how to use aFPA. You can also read more about aFPA below.
What is aFPA?
aFPA is the backbone of 4for4 Fantasy Football’s Strength of Schedule analysis across the entire site and compares fantasy points allowed data on a more accurate scale than raw fantasy points allowed, by adjusting for each team’s individual strength of schedule. aFPA uses rolling 10 week data, which offers a large enough sample size to be accurate, but also keeps the most relevant data. aFPA feeds into other 4for4 tools, such as the Hot Spots, and is noted most commonly under the M/U (matchup) columns in various reports such as weekly rankings and DFS Value Reports.
How It Works
To understand how aFPA works take two teams from 2015, the Dallas Cowboys and the Kansas City Chiefs. After Week 15, Dallas and KC ranked first and second, respectively, in aFPA versus opposing quarterbacks. In the 10 weeks leading up to Week 16, Dallas had allowed just 11.6 raw fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, while KC had given up 14.3, but raw fantasy points allowed doesn’t remove schedule bias.
The Schedule Adjusted Fantasy Points allowed metric recognized that in that 10 week period, the group of QBs that Dallas faced averaged 14.4 FP/g, while KC played against QBs that posted 19.1 FP/g. The Chiefs’ ability to hold that group of signal callers to just over 14 points FP/g is clearly an impressive feat, and aFPA rewarded KC with a high ranking.
How It Helps You Win
Without the use of aFPA, a fantasy owner might have seen the raw data and figured that the Cowboys were an obvious team to avoid with their QB while KC might be worth targeting.
This example highlights the importance of using aFPA, especially for weekly matchup decisions, but its use extends to every position for every single team, for both standard and PPR scoring.